Facebook went public last week, and I watched the ticker all day long. It did what I and many others suspected, climbed and fell as the day went by. It made me think though...what exactly were those people buying? How solid is this investment? What is Facebook's plan to make money?
Let's start with the fact that social media is in essence a communications platform. People use it to connect. They share information, solicit assistance, are entertained. However, for the most part, people are not there to be solicited, and they consider ads to be an unwelcome interruption. So how can Facebook make money if its users reject its business model?
First, you must understand the difference between users and customers. You and I are users. We use the platform for free. Facebook's customers are the people and businesses that it makes money from: its application and game developers and its advertisers. There is a very big difference in the status of a user and a customer, as is evidenced by Facebook's continuous rejection of user outcry when Facebook does something that users find offensive, such as open their personal information to developers.
Hindsight is 20-20, but if I sat in the big chair at Facebook, I would have been developing premium content that users could pay to use, like chat and video capabilities. I would have maintained a basic, free platform available to all users, but introduced enhanced premium content that was so appealing and inexpensive that many users would want it. Let's face it, if Facebook had introduced chat several years ago as a paid upgrade, with a prominently stated 90-day free trial for all existing and new users, many people would have been hooked on it and just might have been willing to pay $1/month for this feature. $12 per year wouldn't really break anybody's bank, but it would have brought a lot of income to Facebook.
Let's not confuse this with LinkedIn's flawed business model that consistently strips away favorite functionality from it's free model, without notifying its users, and requires a paid, premium subscription to access this content and functionality that users had relied on for free in the past.
How about businesses? As Facebook exploded, and businesses wanted to cash in the huge database of users by developing pages there, why didn't Facebook charge them to build a business page? Again, many, if not most businesses could and would have afforded a nominal fee to establish a presence there. But then again, if Facebook charged for this service, users would have had some rights, and Facebook wouldn't have been able to do things like employ customer service reps overseas who "review" and seem to randomly delete content reported as offensive, despite there being no problem with it at all. And they wouldn't be able to randomly take down pages and ignore users' customers' requests for help.
But I digress.
Facebook has already come close to reaching critical mass. With the exception of kids who age in annually, most of the people who aren't on already, don't want to be there, and it will take a lot of convincing to make them actually become engaged users if you were able to get them to sign up in the first place. So where is the growth potential? China?
As far as I can tell, Facebook's business model includes income from app developers and advertisers only. Now that it is public, there will be no more angel invertors. So when was the last time you clicked on a Facebook ad? How often do you do so? Do you pay for game upgrades? Have you even associated a credit card with our Facebook account? No? Neither have I.
It seems to me that the only people making money are the ones who had huge bundles of stock that they unloaded last week to people who wanted to own a piece of Facebook.
I'd love to hear how you think Facebook will make money and turn out to be a good investment for all those stockholders down the road.

